This is not a market I am betting on but I show it here because it is the issue of the moment. Tonight there’s a BBC documentary with reportedly quite remarkable reports of what was happening in Number 10 when the rest of the nation was locked down. This is from the BBC:

For the first time, insiders who were at some of the events have told BBC Panorama in detail what they saw. They describe arriving for work the morning after a get-together to find bottles lying around parts of the building, bins overflowing with rubbish and empties left on the table. They also tell of events with dozens of staff crowded together, and parties going so late that, on occasion, some ended up staying in Downing Street all night. And they say staff mocked others who tried to stop what was going on.

Tomorrow, of course, is the big one – the publication of Sue Gray’s report. Johnson himself is reported in his private meeting with Gray to have tried to persuade her not to publish.

Undoubtedly this is a big political event but only relevant in terms of Johnson’s job security if Tory MPs move to get rid of him. Will there be enough “meat” there for removal being the only real option for the party.

Inevitably this will get enormous media coverage and the question is how it will impact on public opinion – particularly Tory voters.

Mike Smithson