One of the problems about winning a big General Election majority is that it creates a large group of MPs who came in last time and feel very insecure whenever the party gets into troubled waters. Many of the surprise winners had to endure the huge disruption in their lives that becoming an MP entails and quite a large proportion never really believed they would be there in the first place.

This is a group that follows the polls very closely and they fully understand that the victory that brought them to Westminster was based on a CON lead over LAB of just under 12% at the last election. Some of the latest polls now have LAB leads of 7-8% and they can do the maths in relation to their own situations. On top of that they look at local elections in their own patches for signs that indicate how well they will do.

In the current parliament, this is complicated by the boundary changes that take effect next year.

So when the party goes through difficulties like with the Conservatives at the moment the atmosphere can be febrile. A big question is about their leadership and whether a change there could produce an uptick in their prospects of retaining their seat.

Essentially Johnson has to convince that he can win again and the upcoming Gray report and the two Westminster by-election defences on June 23rd will not make things easier.

Johnson has shown he can beat discredited Labour figures like Livingstone and Corbyn. Starmer alas does not fit into that category.

Mike Smithson