As the betting chart shows the markets are still unclear as to whether they have a view on Johnson departing this year. If I was to bet here which I have not done my money will be still on him keeping his job.

I do think that there is a high chance of a confidence ballot taking place in the period after the local elections next month. What I am not convinced of is the outcome.

Johnson has made it very clear that he is going to do whatever it takes to stay at number 10 and he will put enormous pressure on individual Tory MPs in the run-up to such a ballot. You can envisage your situation of a confidence ballot being held which Johnson won.

It might be recalled that in the final year of TMay’s premiership there was a confidence vote in which she survived. Her decision a few months later to quit the job was entirely her own choice.

What is very clear is that Johnson’s attempts to stay at number 10 is going to continue to be the political story of the year.

Mike Smithson