Clearly Boris Johnson is going through a very tricky period and the big question remains whether he can survive certainly until the end of the year. Until late past week I’ve taken the view that he would make it but this lunchtime I placed a bet at about 2/1 on Betfair that he would be out this year. This is not a prediction but an assessment that the odds offered value.

The hurdles in the short term for Johnson are many. Tomorrow Labour have put down a motion that would refer him a to a Commons committee. Then with his ratings and Tory voting numbers in apparent freefall we have the local election just two weeks away. It is hard to see those producing anything but big negatives for his party.

Following on from that at a date to be finalised there will be the Wakefield Westminster by-election where Smarkets have it as a 90% chance that the Tories will lose the seat to LAB.

What very poor election performances could do is set alarm bells off amongst CON MPs who see their own seats in danger. There must be a possibility that that could trigger a confidence vote.

The message that is coming from those of all parties pounding the streets in the coming elections is that the PM himself is a big issue on the doorstep. Tory voter turnout is expected to be low and the party is bracing itself for losses.

In this context the current odds on a Johnson 2022 exit look value.

Mike Smithson