The French election is getting very tight for Macron
Laying the incumbent might just be a value bet
The first round of voting in the French presidential election is just a week on Sunday. A total of 12 contenders will be on the ballot paper which decides which two go to the final runoff a fortnight later. In many ways this is a similar voting system for the Tory leadership in the UK when MPs vote to decide which two go forward to the membership.
In the betting Macron’s price has started to edge down a bit and from being a 92% chance a week ago he is now at 88%.
The above table shows the polling on the assumption that the runoff will be between Macron and Le Pen. These 2 continue to top the first round polling though the left-wing Melenchon is now clearly in third place. I have a longshot bet on the latter to make the final two.
By a big margin the French election is currently the biggest political betting event around in the UK.