The seat with a CON GE2019 72% share where Johnson can’t risk a by-election
It is being reported in the Telegraph that the Prime Minister has blocked the Maldon MP from being appointed head of OfCom because of the risk of losing the seat in a by-election. The figures from the last general election are in the Wikipedia table above.
On the face of it this looks crazy given the sheer size of Whittingdale’s majority at GE2019. The seat went leave at the referendum with a 62% vote share and the proportion of graduates, at 22% is below the UK average.
It would take a CON to LD swing of 30.1% for the Tories to lose such an election which might sound impregnable but it is less than 34% that we saw in North Shropshire in December.
Whittingdale, the current MP, is a former cabinet minister.