??#France, presidential election poll (2nd round):

??Macron (LREM): 60 %
??Le Pen (RN): 40 %

?Macron (LREM): 66 % (-1)
?Zemmour (R!): 34 % (+1)

?Macron (LREM): 67 % (+2)
?Mélenchon (FI): 33 % (-2)

?Macron (LREM): 63 %
?Pécresse (LR): 37 %

Ipsos, 15/03/22 pic.twitter.com/wvHPG3Qbe8

— World Elects (@ElectsWorld) March 15, 2022

We are now just over 3.5 weeks away from the first round of the French presidential election and already the pollsters are testing the water with the possible two contenders who will make it through to the final round.

On April 10th a total of 12 different candidates will be on the ballot which decides which two will go forward to the second round of voting two weeks later.

All the polling suggests that the incumbent French President, Macron, will be one of the two. The question is who will join him. The big global political development has, of course, been Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the current second favourite , Le Pen, is seen as “soft on Russia”. Whether that will impact on the outcome is hard to say.

I’ve had a longshot bet (I like big odds!) on Jean-Luc Mélenchon because he might just be the beneficiary of any Le Pen slippage.

Mike Smithson