How’s the polling going to look in two years time
If Johnson does not go to the country early then in two years’ time we would be just about to start the general election campaign.
One thing that is hard to see happening is the Tories being as dominant in the polls next time as they were at GE2019. Then Johnson got what was a near landslide with his party securing a lead just under 12% of the GB vote. The latest polls have LAB 2%+ ahead so there has been a CON to LAB swing of more than 6%.
The last time the Tories had a poll lead was from R&W in early December. Although LAB has had a few double-digit leads the polls have settled down to gaps from 2% to 7%.
At GE2019 Johnson dwarfed the then LAB leader, Corbyn, in the leader ratings. Now Starmer is generally ahead.
At the moment it looks like we are heading for a hung parliament but things can change.