Remember Starmer can be next PM even if CON wins most seats
For almost the last three months I have been saying that Starmer for next PM is one of the better political bets at the moment. He’s currently a 14% chance on Betfair which has moved up a fair bit since the 8-9% betting chance he was on in January when the narrative was that Johnson would be booted out.
I suggested then that Tory MPs didn’t have the bottle or numbers to try to oust him.
What is really remarkable is how the “PM Starmer” bet compares with the “LAB to win most seats” bet which is currently rated on the betting exchanges as a 38% chance.
This is crazy because there is no sign at all that someone other than Stamrer will lead LAB at the next election. Also his party does not even need to win most votes or most seats for him to become PM.
The main thing that gets Starmer into Number 10 is for the Tories to lose, according to my reckoning, 47 seats or more. Some of those losses could be to the SNP, others to the LDs – the important thing for LAB is that the Tories are no longer in a position where they have a majority.
Under Johnson the Tories are, I would suggest, uncoalitionable.