Sunak has been favourite for the Conservative leadership for so long now that it is almost becoming an established fact that this will eventually happen. But does he have the backing of enough MPs and is the betting price wrong?

At the start of February when everything looked very bleak for Johnson many became convinced that we were about to see a confidence vote against the incumbent Prime Minister. But that didn’t happen and I wonder whether that was down to doubts about Sunak from his fellow MPs rather than support for Boris?

Looking back you do not start a confidence move to shift the incumbent unless you have a clear idea about who should be the replacement. My reading of the events of a few weeks ago that it was doubts about Sunak for PM that in the end caused CON MPs to pause before moving forward with the no-confidence process.

Looking at the Tory parliamentary party it is hard to see where Sunak fits. He’s doesn’t appear to be head of a distinctive group.

Mike Smithson