As long as MPs rate VI ahead of Approval ratings the PM is safe
Johnson’s doing 4% worse than Corbyn on the eve of GE2019
I am sure that just about all PBers are aware of my position that leader approval numbers are a better guide to the public mood than voting intention.
Having been stuck in all day because of the storms I’ve been looking at historical ratings and have discovered that in the final Opinium polling before GE2019 Corbyn had a net approval rating of 24% approving and 54% disapproving – a net minus 30%.
That compares with the latest figures for Johnson from the same pollster of 24% approving and 58% disapproving – a net minus 34%. So it seems that the hostility to Johnson is greater than it was towards Labour’s leader just before the historic December 2019 LAB general election disaster.
The thing is, though, at Westminster the media and MPs are stilled wedded into the fetish of voting intention and here apparently the Tories are closing the gap. This latter development is surely acting as a brake on any idea of CON MPs going for a PM confidence ballot.
The main beneficiaries, I would suggest, are Starmer and Davey who would really love to be fighting the incumbent at the next election.