The projection on 5/5/22 that could end Johnson or save him
The above table is of the BBC’s Projected National Vote Shares that is computed by leading political scientists in the hours after the May local elections.
This projection is used each year so we can get a better sense of how well the parties are doing compared with the previous year when a whole different lot of local elections were taking place. This is because there is a four-year cycle of local elections with different groups of seats coming up each year and simple comparisons of how many gains and losses can be misleading. Thus you would expect the English shire counties to have figures that are a lot more positive for the Tories than in the big cities.
As we all know there is a general view emerging that this year’s locals could be make or break for the PM who is under police investigation for what he’s alleged to have done during lockdown.
If the Tory PNVS is not too far off the 36% from May last year it will likely help him. The converse is clearly the case.