It is still odds-on that Johnson won’t last the year
This is a market that we have not looked at for a few weeks and as can be seen from the chart the situation remains largely unchanged on the betting markets. Most of the money is going on a Johnson exit in 2022.
Clearly all of this will be shaken up whenever we see the results of the police investigation into whether the prime minister broke the lockdown regulations in 2020. There are those who argue that any sanction against the prime minister like a fixed price penalty charge will be enough to trigger no confidence ballad amongst conservative MPs.
It would indeed be ironic if Johnson had to step aside because of breaching the rules that he introduced.
What we do know is that the prime minister is a very tenacious man when it comes to looking after his own career and he is not going to go easily.
A lot of this will be influenced by Tory MPs hearing what voters say in their constituencies.
As yet I’ve not had a bet.