Waiting for a Tory VoNC is like waiting for bloody Godot. On and on it goes. Still, on the (questionable) assumption that there will be a vacancy before the days get shorter, it might be worth considering one MP who has not yet figured in any speculation, possibly because he has never expressed any public interest in the role. Nor has anyone else suggested him.

The single biggest factor affecting any choice depends on the manner of the PM’s departure and why he goes. If it is caused by yet another and worse scandal with his MPs turning away from him and his approach to politics in disgust, if MPs and party members decide that they need a change of direction, tone and character, then all bets may be off as to who they may turn to. If they don’t – if they simply want another election-winning beast without Boris’s flaws, misjudgements, ropey private life and colourful turn of phrase, then they will likely stick with one of the existing Cabinet Ministers in the hope (possibly a vain one) that this will do the trick. Or at least give them a fighting chance in the two years before the next election.

By change of direction, tone and character, I don’t just mean a more competent and honest version of the current incumbent – nor a fundamental about-turn on Brexit – but a turning away from his whole approach to politics: the belligerent “us and them” approach to opponents, the willingness to have undiplomatic fights, the contempt for conventions, the concentration of power at the centre, the contempt for Parliament and other independent sources of power, the desire to avoid scrutiny, an indifference to the non-English countries in the United Kingdom, a tone deafness to anyone outside a closed circle, the lack of basic human decency, an inability to forge good working relationships. If so, there may be a wish to choose someone untainted by their involvement with the current government. One difficulty with this is that anyone like that – even the brightest of backbenchers – lacks experience, a significant issue when it is a PM – not simply a leader – being chosen.

So how about someone with Ministerial experience now on the backbenches? How about Julian Smith MP? Consider what he is not: not an Eton old boy – he was educated at a Scottish comprehensive then won a scholarship to Millfield School at 16; not educated at Oxbridge – but Birmingham University; not a PPE degree – English and History, not a Spad, not a City money man.

What does he bring?

• Born and brought up in Scotland. He has sat on the Scottish Affairs Committee.
• An MP for a Northern constituency – Skipton and Ripon – since 2010, increasing his majority to a healthy 23,694 majority in 2019.
• He became an MP relatively late having first had a career in business in executive recruitment.
• His Ministerial career has been mixed. He voted Remain – his constituency voted 53% Leave – and became Chief Whip under Theresa May. He had the unenviable task of herding Tory cats into voting for Mrs May’s Brexit deal, a task that would have defeated the Archangel Gabriel given the party’s febrile state and Mrs May’s own rigid inability to sell her deal to her party. Still one hopes that being a Whip at such a time would have taught him some useful skills.
• As Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, he was a notable success – building good relationships with political parties there and the Irish government and succeeding in re-establishing devolved government, a task which defeated his predecessors for the previous three years. He was also responsible for bringing NI’s social laws into line with the rest of the UK, getting a compensation scheme for the victims of the Troubles and one relating to child abuse victims. Quite some achievements for a Minister in charge for only 204 days. Despite his inexplicable sacking from that job, a decision which caused dismay to local and Irish politicians, he has remained closely interested in the province, many of his Parliamentary interventions and speeches relating to Northern Irish affairs. Given its importance to good relations with the EU, not to mention the desirability of good governance to a historically unstable and violence-ridden area, a PM with effective diplomatic skills and a genuine understanding of and interest in the province would be a welcome change.
• He is not afraid to speak truth to power and do so unambiguously. He did so over a no-deal Brexit being a very bad idea for NI. More recently he has been one of the first – and few – Tory MPs to criticise his party and his leader over behaviour such as the Savile comments or even other Tory Parliamentarians (John Redwood, for instance) over attacks on the BBC or civil servants (Daniel Hannan). He did so in terms which seem to suggest that he understands why such attacks undermine democracy and trust, not simply the party on whose behalf they’re uttered.
• His age – just as Cardinals don’t vote for young Popes, the younger hopefuls in the party may want an older Michael Howard-style figure who can steady the ship and allow them to flourish until it is their turn.
• His somewhat old-fashioned style of Toryism: decent, unflashy, competent. It may not set anyone’s heart beating but be what’s needed at a time of difficulties and economic uncertainty. It may make Tories abandoning the party and others look again. It may provide a tougher opponent for Labour than even a weakened Johnson.

Is it enough? Probably not – there is always the “empty vessel into which dreams are poured” fallacy. Does he want it? No indication that he does. Does he have followers? Ditto. Whether he or anyone like him is the answer depends on the party understanding that its current malaise goes somewhat deeper than a PM under pressure because of pictures of prosecco and tinsel. But if interested, he’s a Buy on Smarkets at 140.

Cyclefree