Take a look at the chart above and what you are seeing is something that is very unusual in British politics. For it is very rare indeed for the Opposition leader to poll significantly higher than the incumbent at Number 10 on the question of who would make the best prime minister.

I think the last time that such sustained gap opened up was during the Blair period as opposition leader between 1994 and 1997 and we all know what happened at GE1997.

In normal times it is very difficult for an opposition leader to get any media attention for it is not he or her who is making the news and that is reflected in the best PM polling. Over the past few weeks everything has changed because of the damage that Johnson has done to himself and his party through the revelations about what he did during lockdown. It is SKS who is repeatedly on our screens as the voice of sanity and looking more and more like a prime minister in waiting.

My assumption is that Johnson won’t fight the next general election for his party but the longer he stays the harder it is will be for his successor to compete with Starmer. The risk for the Tories is that the LAB leader will increasingly be seen as the next PM in and will get more media attention. Those of us old enough to remember the late 1990s will recall how difficult it was for Major to get a look in when the country was waiting for Blair.

Now Starmer’s got a long way to go before he reaches the sorts of leads that Blair had and I doubt whether he will ever get to that level but it is going to be hard for the Tories to reverse things.

There is another issue likely to arise as we get closer to the general election and that is MPs in marginal Tory seats are going to think very deeply about their future and whether they want to put all the effort into standing again. As has been shown time and time again it is much harder for a new candidate to defend a seat for his/her party than the first time incumbent seeking re-election.

Keeping Johnson at Number 10 will cost the party dear.

Mike Smithson