The betting reflects a bit more confidence that Johnson will survive
A 2022 exit now a 65%
With no move yet against the PM the 2022 exit gamble on the betting markets has edged down a bit and now stands at a 65% chance. It was nearly 80%.
Things could move very quickly once the Gray report comes out but we are going to have to wait. There’s no doubt that Number 10 has been working hard on trying to influence Tory MPs ahead of a possible confidence vote and one reported casualty might be the NI increase due to take place in April and a measure that has upset large parts of a party that likes to reduce taxed not increase them.
As to the final report text the BBC is reporting:
...Sue Gray is determined that the report she submits to Downing Street will be in a form that can allow for it to be published by No 10 in full. What she wants to avoid are last minute redactions, or a report that focuses on the least egregious events, while leaving everything that’s contentious to the police.
If that is right then it might be harder for the PM.