One thing we have learned this past week is that Johnson is not going anywhere of his own accord. For him to cease to be PM is going to require Tory MPs to act – first to have a confidence ballot and then for the MPs to decide by a simple majority that he should go.

We have seen over the past few days that the Johnson team is going to go to great lengths to keep their man at Number 10 and it is going to require enough MPs to have the bottle to take action.

Is it going to happen? A key factor will be the Gray Report parts of which could be available next week. There has been quite a lot of media coverage on what she will write but we cannot regard anything as certain until we see the document.

If as seems likely it is critical then we will see whether Tory MPs are really ready to bring down the PM.

Number 10 is not being helped by the declining Conservative poll position and the freefall in Johnson’s personal ratings.

I think the betting has this about right.

Mike Smithson