What have CON voters been telling their MPs?

Clearly this is a period of high danger for Johnson. With CON MP’s returning to Westminster they will be able to report on the reaction in their constituencies to what came out before the weekend. My guess is that a collective view will emerge.

Johnson great strength is that he is seen by many as being an election winner – but his critics might note that defeating the discredited figures of Livingstone and Corbyn is perhaps not such a big deal. The recent by-elections have not gone well for the party.

Also Labour, led by the invogorated Keir Starmer, is riding a high and is a completely different kettle of fish to his precessor. So far, at least, he has been using Johson’s behavior effectively and his background as prosecutor is clearly helping.

The real question Tory MPs will be considering is the possible electoral impact of us knowing how the PM approached the rules when we were all under strict lockdown. The first national polls have seen a significant uplift in the LAB lead. Is this be just a temporary phenomenon or is it going to stick?

My guess is that if Johnson does lead his party into the next election then even two years on this will still have enormous political potency.

In the betting it is now a 62% chance that Johnson will be out this year,

Mike Smithson