Lots of speculation today about the future of Boris Johnson as prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party. The big question is how long is he going to remain in the job and Betfair have just put one up on whether he’ll still be in the job at this year’s Conservative conference.

The latest betting has this as a 70% chance which is almost the same odds that are currently being traded on Smarkets on him NOT being the leader at the next general election.

As I stated in an earlier post I’m not convinced that Tory MPs are yet in a position where they would move to pass a no-confidence vote that would mean the end. Trouble is if that was put and failed Johnson would be assured of a further year untroubled by a challenge.

Bringing down a leader is always highly risky because if it fails then those responsible will likely find that it could impact on their future careers.

I’m old enough to remember very clearly the fall of Mrs. Thatcher in 1990 and it was always touch and go whether someone would have the bottle to take it forward.

Things, however, continue to get worse for Johnson over what he did during the first lockdown in May 2020.

Mike Smithson