Terrible MRP findings for Johnson from Survation

New research and MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees by Survation in conjunction with Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University has found that the Conservative majority won in 2019 could disappear, should the current voting trend continue. The projections result in a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party by a significant margin. 

Two MRP polls were carried out and the table above shows the huge difference for Johnson’s party between the November outcome and the one that ended just before Christmas.

The analysis found that older voters were the most likely to say that the government is not living up to the Nolan principles. This is likely to cause significant concern for Johnson’s party, given that older voters are generally much more likely to vote Conservative, and shows the potential for accusations of sleaze to shift votes by affecting this key voter demographic for the Tories.  Many of the Conservative’s newly won seats – e.g. the Red Wall are particularly susceptible to this, with many constituencies featuring an older age demographic profile than is the national picture.

The surveys and MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees by Survation in conjunction with Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University. These are some of the key findings:

• Our new research, using MRP, shows that core Conservative voting groups – older voters and rural constituencies are the most likely of all to be concerned by recent lobbying and lockdown party allegations.
• As older voters are more likely to vote Conservative, we can see how the impact of accusations of sleaze shifts votes among older voters and order profile constituencies, depriving the Conservatives of many of these otherwise core voters. 
• Vote share projections in the poll show 41% for Labour, 35% for the Conservative Party and 9% for the Lib Dems, 
• MRP analysis from the figures indicate the Conservatives would win 255 seats, – a net loss of 111. Labour would return 309 seats, just 11 short of a majority and with a net gain of 107 seats on 2019 totals. SNP success would cause Conservatives to lose all their seats in Scotland
• Five Cabinet ministers, including the Prime Minister, could lose their seats. Other Cabinet ministers projected to lose their seats include George Eustice, Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Alok Sharma. 
• Of 40 key Red Wall seats identified and currently held by Tories, only three (Dudley North, Morley & Outwood and Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland) are projected to be held by the Conservatives.

The full report can be found here

Mike Smithson