One of the reasons that I use Opinium polls a lot for illustrative purposes is that the firm’s polling datasets are far more comprehensive than any other pollster and provide information not available elsewhere.

The chart above is a case in point and illustrates the value of Opinium’s practice of including cross-heads showing responses of those polled in different sorts of constituency based on the GE2019 outcome.

Here I am trying to show how things have moved since “Peak Boris” – the 2021 local elections in May with on the same day the Tory gain in the Hartlepool by-election. Then Johnson had a clear net 22% approval lead amongst those in seats the Tories had gained at GE2019. In the latest poll this down to minus 29% – an overall change of 51% which is colossal.

Is it any wonder with this change in the public mood about the PM that two of the last four Westminster by-elections have been total disasters for Johnson’s party? It is hard not to conclude that Boris is anything other than a huge electoral liability.

This group of seats which contains those now described as being in the “Red Wall” will be the key battlegrounds for the next election and this poll movement should be of real concern for the Tories.

Maybe only a change of leader could reverse the trend. Is that going to happen? That looks set to be the big political story of 2022.

Mike Smithson