So far I have only got a small bet on this market and it was placed some time ago. Although all the pressure today has been absolutely dreadful for Johnson I’m still not convinced that he’ll go of his own accord or that there will be a successful move amongst Conservative MP’s to get rid of him.

It is very risky for MPs pressing ahead with a confidence vote because if Johnson wins it then there can be no similar move for a further 12-months.

Generally speaking when leaders are in trouble they manage to hang on much longer than most people expect and I would expect that to happen here.

Undoubtedly though Johnson is one step away from a confidence move and he has to tread very carefully indeed. The big if is whether he can restore confidence in his leadership and he is going to need to change his whole approach.

Mike Smithson