Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs
In the previous header Quincel looked at the possibility of the Domonic Raab losing his seat if the LDs do well in the seats where they are competitive.
One of the things the by-elections have shown is that after nearly a decade of Tory rule many voters will be very flexible in their choice in order defeat Johnson’s party. One of the characteristics of the possible LD targets listed above is a highish proportion of graduates. Most of those in the list voted Remain though as Thursday showed us that is becoming far less of a consideration.
I would have made a lot more money betting on North Shropshire if I had disregarded the Brexit vote factor.
The big thing which we are seeing in the polls is a rapid decline in Johnson’s leader ratings with the positive figure for the PM down to the 20s in the latest polling. Focaldata had just 22% approving with 62% disapproving while Ipsos-MORI last week had a net minus 37% satisfaction level for the PM.
It is hard not to conclude that Johnson is now a great liability to his party.
We might see some polling this weekend which emphasises this point. Johnson has become a huge negative for his party. He doesn’t help himself by making all the announcements himself rather than letting the relevant cabinet minister take the lead.
The history of the Tory party shows us that failing leaders get replaced and I wonder how far we are away from that.