After the huge rebellion of Tory MPs last night against BJ’s Covid plans the chances of BJ going early, perhaps next year appears increasingly likely. That is how punters are seeing it as the betdata.io betting chart shows.

This is not the only big challenge that BJ has to cope with this week. Given what happened last night and the PM’s less than confident recent PMQ appearances then facing Starmer at lunchtime looks even trickier than usual.

Then there is tomorrow’s North Shropshire by-election where the Tories scooped up 62.7% of the vote at GE2019. Even a majority down to a few votes would be seen as a victory by the PM given how bad things have got. On the betting markets, the LDs are now back as having a 62% chance to make an historic gain.

On top of all of this the days of Tory polling leads are becoming a distant memory and now LAB is opening a clear gap.

It is said that the Tories put up with Johnson because he is seen as an election winner. Losing a seat with a 40%+ majority could totally change that perception.

My money is now on a 2022 exit at longer than evens.

Mike Smithson