…punters seem to think otherwise

On the face of it there should be no doubt about the outcome of Thursday’s by-election in Shropshire North. At GE2019 the Tories retained the seat with a majority of 40.6% over LAB and 52.7% over the LDs. Both Quincel and TSE in previous PB headers have stuck their necks out and said that this is going to be a Conservative hold.

Maybe but maybe not. In the betting for the past week or so the Lib Dems, which opened the campaigns at about 5/1, have moved to a 66% chance according to the markets. If this happened it would join the ranks of one of the most sensational by-elections victories ever.

For over the decades the outcome in General Elections this solid true blue county seat has never been in doubt. This means the electorate has never experienced a full-blown by-election campaigning like the one that has been going on since disgraced former MP, Owen Paterson, resigned.

As we have seen over the years one of the features of the LDs in such contests has been the ability to pull in hundreds of volunteers from all over the country if there’s the possibility of being part of a by-election sensation. What makes them particularly effective is that many of them have a high level of campaigning expertise because that’s been necessary to win local battles. They are good on the doorstep as well as being ready to do the grunt work of delivery – the LDs push a lot of paper through letter-boxes at election time.

For voters the daily leaflets and personalised letters, phone calls and canvassers knocking on their doors asking for their political views is a completely unique experience and one that quite a few voters find enjoyable.

I don’t regard the current odds on the LDs as value.

Mike Smithson