On Smarkets its a 55% chance that Scotland will vote for Independence
The polling has a different picture
The former head of political research at the BBC, David Cowling, has issued his latest polling table showing the results of all the surveys on how Scottish voters think another independence referendum would go. The last such vote was in 2014 when it was rejected by a margin of about 10%.
As can be seen from the polling table there has been some movement from that point and there have been a couple of Scottish surveys of late which have suggested that this could be even more finely balanced than 7 years ago.
These are the market rules for the Smarkets betting exchange.
This market will be settled on the result of the next independence referendum in Scotland. If Scotland achieves independence from the UK without a referendum this market will be void. If no referendum is held by the end of 2022 this market will be void.
The betting market has a time limit of the end of next year for a referendum to be held and if it hasn’t then punters will get their money back.
This is a betting market I am keeping away from because at the moment it is just theoretical. If a new referendum is held then that of itself might change attitudes.