Are punters too influenced by Chesham & Amersham?

The above is a canvassing leaflet produced by the Lib Dems in North Shropshire and as can be seen shows the central focus of the by-election campaign. The party is making this about Tory sleaze helped by the fact that the reason there is a by-election at all is because of the resignation of the previous MP Owen Paterson.

It had appeared that there was going to be a recall petition which could have been initiated if the first Commons move had been allowed to go through unamended.

The Lib Dems who played a big part in the successful recall petition campaign in Brecon and Radnorshire in 2019 were all ready to do the same in Shropshire North. That the by-election is taking place a lot earlier is entirely down to the events of two weeks ago when the government tried to amend the standards commission proposal and then did a U-turn.

This is how the betting is moving on Smarkets:

In my view this is nothing like as easy a target for the LD machine as Chesham and Amersham yet the betting is totally different. Then you could have got 15/1 or better right up to polling day. That success has very much influenced punters in Shropshire North.

The big thing is that North Shropshire was 59.46% Leave at the Referendum which is not a good metric for the LDs.

Davey’s party is, however, running an intensive by-election campaign which is seeing large number of activists travelling each day to the seat and they are certainly in with a chance. The big question is how much damage the former MP did to the Tories.

Mike Smithson