At GE2019 the Tories won 64.5% of the vote in Old Bexley and Sidcup with LAB on just 23.5% so on the face of it a “certain” CON hold. Yet that is not how it is seen. Starmer’s party is throwing a lot at the seat and clearly, the political climate for a Tory defence is far from ideal.

Inevitably corruption and MPs second jobs have evolved as key issues.

When the Tories held the seat at GE2019 the overall vote margin the party had was 41%. Now the Tories are trailing nationally and the big question is how the events following Johnson’s botched effort to save Owen Paterson will impact on Tory turnout. My guess is that it will be markedly down.

The Labour campaign, under the watchful eye of Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, is attracting significantly more foot soldiers which are absolutely central in terms of identifying potential supporters and making sure that they vote. The two Tweets above are very telling in respect of available party workers.

At 12/1 LAB might still be a value bet. I’m on LAB at 16/1.

Mike Smithson