How the Tories will get a 20 seat bonus from the new boundaries
Above are two projections from Electoral Calculus of a seat projection based on the latest poll R&W poll that had LAB 2% ahead.
The top one uses the existing boundaries while the bottom one uses the new ones that are due to come into effect in 2023.
On the current boundaries, the projection has the Tories 7 seats behind. On the 2023 ones the projection has CON 13 seats ahead so although the Tories would be behind on votes they would be ahead on seats. Overall this gives the Tories a 20 seat advantage.
This is one of the big reasons why I think there will be no early election. The benefits of waiting for the new boundaries to come into effect are so great.