Election betting: CON majority drops to a 39% chance
In the past few days several PBers have commented that they think that the Tories will win another majority at the next election. This is in contrast to the trend on the betting markets where the chances of such an outcome, as rated by punters, has edged down a bit.
This is entirely in line with current polling with two firms now having the CON lead down to one. This represents a 5.4% CON to LAB swing since GE2019.
We are, of course, possibly at least two years away from a general election and anything can happen in the meantime. We do know, however, that that other big indicator of electoral outcomes, the approval ratings for the PM, are looking pretty dire for the incumbent.
Coming up today is the latest from Ipsos-MORI. This was Tweeted yesterday.