As can be seen from the chart of Betfair’s Boris exit date market there has been a little bit of movement in the past 24 hours with 2022 moving from an 18% chance yesterday to a 24% chance now. Over the same period, 2024 or later edged down from a 58% chance to a 54% one.

The thing that is always said about how long he’ll be in Number 10 is that his salary as PM is nowhere what he was earning from journalism before he became leader and PM and it is said that he is under pressure financially. I have always thought that it will be this factor that could be decisive.

What could be important is the feedback Tory MPs get from their constituents this weekend.

The latest polling suggests a 4.4% CON to LAB swing since GE2019 and if that was to happen a not insignificant number of CON MPs would lose their seats.

Mike Smithson