It is hard to see Old Bexley & Sidcup being other than a comfortable CON hold
Normally I get quite excited about Westminster by elections particularly when they are defences by the party of government. But this strong Leave seat is surely going to be held by Tories and the “real” election was last Saturday’s selection of the Conservative candidate.
Clearly there will be a very low turnout which has become the characteristic of by-elections where the LDs are not competitive. In times of old Davey’s party might have been in with a shout but since the referendum the party has found it difficult to flourish outside areas that did not vote Remain.
The key number for the seat is that at the Referendum it voted 63.16% Leave.
Labour has really struggled in Westminster by-elections under Starmer and the big interest will whether the party can exceed its GE2019 vote share. This it has failed to do in all three by-elections South of the border. Another flop might add to the pressure on his leadership.