Maybe a CON win in Old Bexley & Sidcup is not the certainty it appears?

While all eyes have been on the Patison affair four weeks tonight we should be getting the result of Old Bexley and Sidcup by election which looks like a certain CON hold. I can’t see the LDs or LAB getting an upset but Reform, which used to be UKIP, are taking it very seriously indeed.

Their candidate is the party’s presentable leader Richard Tice who is putting a lot of effort in.

Yesterday I put a £5 bet on at 100/1 that Tice, will win this by-election. He says he’s putting his name forward to protest against what he describes as Johnson’s highly-taxed, highly-regulated nanny state and wants to give Boris a “bloody nose”. That message might have more resonance following the PM’s handling of the Paterson affair.

The former UKIP leader and MEP had a great result in Hartlepool at the general election getting just under 26% of the vote and I just wondered whether in the December 2nd by-election he will benefit from ex-Tories who have become disgruntled with Johnson following things like the U-turns that we have seen.

At the referendum the Leave vote in the seat was estimated to be 63.6% which was one of the biggest in the county.

With none of the established parties looking strong at the moment there must a chance that Tice could get a good result in the by-election particularly if there is a low turnout.

My bet was on the Smarkets exchange where his current price is 40/1 which might just about offer value.

Mike Smithson

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