Will Paterson be the trigger for the Tories to lose their poll lead?
As we all know the Tories have, except for just two polls, been ahead in every survey since the spring when the so-called vaccination bounce was happening. Could all that come to an end following BoJo’s decision to thwart action against what seems to be a clear case of paid for lobbying?
A lot depends on how this is reported by the media and no doubt there is nervousness about how the national papers will treat it.
We do have the experience of the lock-down breaking Cummings trip to Barnard Castle to act as a precedent. Here, in end May and early June 2020 the Tories retained their poll lead but it was markedly reduced. Until this was reported it had been in double figures right across the board. It then slipped into single figures and got as low as 2%.
There is no betting market at the moment but if there was I would be having a punt on a Labour lead at odds longer than evens.