How those saying Green 6 months before an election actually voted
Thanks to leading political academic, Paula Sturridge, for highlighting this – what those who told pollsters six months before an election actually did on the day.
Based on the extensive British Electoral Study data she has produced the above chart which really is quite revealing. People might say they are going Green six months before polling day but a majority in the case of each of the three elections did not end up voting for the Green Party.
The reason, I would suggest, is quite clear. First past the post elections make it harder for smaller parties in specific seats and only in one or two could the Greens claim to have a reasonable chance.
I know about my own experience. Whenever I’m sampled for a voting intention poll I always indicate Lib Dem. But living in the tightest CON-LAB marginal in the country I feel under strong pressure not to waste my vote when it comes to the actual election. People might remember my agonising on PB on the afternoon of the last election about which to go.
Perhaps we ought to take this into account when looking at the latest polls. The latest YouGov had the Greens on 10% with the Tories just 4% ahead. If the pattern from this analysis is right then the Tories could be regarded as being behind.