One of the reasons I love Opinium polls more than others is the way the firm presents its data. There are far far more cross-heads than with any other firm and poll watchers can spend hours just going through it.

In its latest poll the Home Secretary, Priti Patel, was included in its regular approval ratings and as will not come as a surprise she has a net minus 55% with those who voted Remain in the referendum. Quite surprisingly, though, Patel is also in negative territory with Leavers on a net minus 9%.

An Opinium feature that I think is unique is the data it produces on the splits in seat types and as can be seen Patel is on minus 28% in places which were CON holds at GE2019.

But the figure that I find most striking is that she is just in negative territory amongst those who voted for the party at GE2019. This contrasts with current CON voters where she is on a net plus 15%. The latter group is of course smaller than the former. The Tories got 44.7% at the general election compared with 41% in the current poll.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.