Starmer’s challenge: LAB starts in an almost impossible position
A LAB majority is almost totally out of the question
Let us go back to the December 2019 general election which saw Corbyn’s Labour suffer its worst general election result since 1935. Their leader then was electoral poison and the Tories were able to use the threat of a Corbyn victory as a great turnout driver for CON supporters and a dampener on those thinking of tactically voting Labour. I am a Lib Dem voting in the tightest LAB-CON marginal in the country and it was not till late afternoon on polling day that I decided what to do.
So Starmer’s great big plus is that he is not Corbyn and it will be much harder for the Tories to demonise the person that Cameron knighted though no doubt they will try.
But Starmer faces a terrible electoral landscape following the dramatic change in Scottish politics that happened after the 2014 Indyref. LAB, it will be recalled, dropped north of the border from holding 41 of the 59 seats to a single MP. There is absolutely no sign that this situation can be reversed certainly not in the short to medium term.
What this means is that the 326 seats required for an overall majority is pretty much out of Labour’s reach. The most they can hope for next time is for the Tories to lose enough seats so they are unable to have a majority. There are signs that this might just be possible.
- The 11.8% GB Tory vote lead has now been halved with some polls having it down to 3%. Labour should make gains from the Tories. On a straight swing perhaps 40 CON seats could flip based on current polling
- BoJo’s party is going to struggle to hold onto the the six seats it has in Scotland
- The Tories are going to find it hard to retain seats that voted Remain where the LDs are in second place and there are a high number of grduates.
As has been pointed out many times BoJo leads a party that is uncoalitionable and it is highly likely that he could be forced out of Number 10 even if the Tories won most votes and most seats. My estimate is that 47 CON losses or more will mean Johnson will cease to be PM.