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I have just had a small bet on Mike Pence being the 2024 Republican nominee for the White House. My reason is like with all bets is that his chances as represented by the betting understates his position.

In the past few days we have been getting reports that he has set up a campaigning and fundraising operation with offices in the DC area. Twenty or so staff have been recruited already and he is already planning visits to the early primary states. This is from CNN:

Pence isn’t waiting to make up with his former running mate — nor is he waiting for the former President to make up his own mind about his political future. People around Pence rejected the idea that he would hold off on his 2024 planning until Trump announces whether he’ll run..”Mike is going to look at this and say, ‘Where am I being called to serve?’ ” said one person close to Pence. “That’s not going to be thwarted by any man or woman.”.”If he feels called to do this,” the adviser went on, “it’s not going to be because of who else is in the race.”

It could be that he ends up fighting his former boss and although Trump has his base that might not be enough to win a primary campaign. You can see in those states that allow it many independent and Democrat voters switching to the Republican primary in order to use their votes to impede the former President.

If Pence runs what happened on January 6th will likely dominate the nomination campaign and it will be recalled that many of the rioters were seeking to get their hands on Pence and possibly kill him. Mock gallows with his name on it were put up outside.

By setting up a campaign so early Pence is making himself the main route to stopping Trump. Him getting the nomination would be the main choice for those who want their party back. He also has by far the best name recognition of likely condentders apart from Trump himself.

Mike Smithson