In spite of their ages, Trump’s 75 and Biden 78, the two men who were their party’s nominees last time continue to head the betting for WH2024.

Taking them one by one I reckon Biden has to operate as if it is certain that he’ll seek re-election unless he could appear a lame duck. Clearly everything depends on his health but if it holds he looks as though he will go for a second term.

I’m not so certain about Trump. He has to continue to appear that he’ll tun again because this is central to upholding his position as GOP boss. But there has been just a sign that this might be less of a certainty. Once or twice recently he has added a caveat about his health when talking about future plans.

I don’t like locking up cash for three years or more because that is what betting now would entail.

Mike Smithson