The latest polls having little impact on the next general election betting
As we all know the pattern of polling since Johnson’s tax rise statement last Monday have been negative for the Tories. The latest from the normally Tory-friendly Redfield has the blue team lead down from 9% to 4% although its PM approval rating has moved just from a net minus 4% to just minus 2% which is very different from the Opinium minus 17% for essentially what is the same question.
The Betfair general election majority market is based on a party securing 326 seats or more which on a 4% CON lead appears challenging for the Tories. At GE2019 the Tory vote lead was 11.8% so this represents a CON to LAB swing of just under 4%
The figure in this betting market which I think is totally out is the 13% on a LAB majority. Without the huge wins that Labour used to secure in Scotland (41 of the 59 seats there at GE2010) this looks an almost impossible task.