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Before I head off for my Lake District holiday some thoughts on the big picture – the next UK general election.

The critical thing about next time is whether the Tories can maintain a working majority and that means, I’d suggest, limiting seat losses to below 47.

Last time the Tory GB vote share lead was 11.8% and polls indicating that it is closer than that point to Labour gains and Tory losses.

We have had an interesting few months with three totally diverse Westminster by-elections. Hartlepool showed the strength of the Tories in so-called red wall areas, Batley & Spen showed Labour’s ability to defend while Chesham & Amersham was a signal of the sort of seat where the LDs can be strong.

In Scotland it is hard to see the Tories holding all the six seats from last time.

A standard tactic from the Tories is to so demonise the Opposition leader that voters in key seats don’t vote Labour.

I live in the tightest LAB-CON marginal in the country and at GE2019 I was totally torn over whether to tactically vote or not. Could I risk letting Corbyn into Number 10? I didn’t decide until I had the Ballot paper in front of me at about 4 in the afternoon on polling day. Such a decision will be much easier with Starmer.

For me the real significance of Starmer, knighted it will be recalled by Cameron, is going to much more difficult to make into a bogey man. This will make it easier for the LDs in their small target list.

My current prediction – the Tories to win most votes and seats but struggling to maintain a majority. Everything depends on how many seat losses.

Mike Smithson