The SNP hasn’t totally collapsed in Scotland

Just looking at the figures in the latest Redfield poll it appears as though it is an outlier. Firstly the CON 43% looks too high compared with other recent surveys and then there is the SNP share. Just 3% is way below what the party achieved at GE2019 and what other polls have been reporting.

As Nate Silver is always pointing out we should expect outliers. Indeed pollsters which never produce them should be regarded skeptically.

When we get other findings from other pollsters we will be able to put this one into context.

Mike Smithson