Overnight we have the latest Opinium poll for the Observer which includes the regular approval ratings. The chart takes the latest numbers by region and shows the changes since the firm’s May 13th poll when the PM’s “vaccine bounce” was at its peak.

Thus in the May poll Johnson had a net positive rating in the Midlands of plus 29%. That is now down to minus 7 which makes a change over the two months of minus 36%.

The figures speak for themselves with the North have the second biggest change followed by Scotland and the South.

Given how important the Midlands and the North were in BoJo securing his huge majority at GE2019 this is likely to cause some headaches at Number 10.

Of course this latest poll comes at a very difficult time for the PM. Not only has there been the “we don’t need to quarantine” move that had to be changed at the start of the week but there was also the big Dom Cummings interview on the BBC.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.