In any case Burnham was rubbish last time he stood

I find it quite remarkable that ex-LAB MP and now Mayor of Gtr Manchester should still be the betting favourite to succeed. Starmer. For a requirement of the job is being an MP and it is not quite clear how Burnham would do that.

I suppose a Burnham loyalist could decide to quit as an MP thus creating a by-election which Burnham would have to win. Another route could be Burnham taking steps to be a candidate in a safe seat for the next general election and hoping that the next leadership contest doesn’t take place until afterwards.

A big negative though is that Burnham ran a very poor campaign when he stood for the leadership after EdM quit following Labour’s defeat at GE2015. That race was won by Corbyn.

There is, like at the last leadership contest, said to be a mood within the party for the next leader to be a woman and it is noticeable that all the other leaders in the betting are female.

What is not fully appreciated is that Starmer could easily become PM. Any CON poll lead of less than 12% suggests that LAB should be set to make gains and that number is very different from the latest poll from Survation which has 4% CON lead. Unlike LAB the Tories, as we have discussed before, are uncoalitionsable. My reckoning is that a total of 47 net CON seat losses to LAB, the SNP and the LDs could be enough for Starmer to become PM even if the Tories won more votes and more seats.

The LDs look set to make gains in Remain seats with larger than average proportions of ABC1s and graduates.

So at the moment, I’m not betting on Starmer’s successor.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.