Thanks to the excellent Election Maps site for the list of LD targets. It has produced charts like the above for all the parties based on what happened at GE2019.

One of the big lessons that the LDs learned from GE2019 was that it is very hard to achieve victory in a seat when they were not runners up there at the previous general election. It is that previous outcome that is so important in setting expectations.

Thus right from the start in the Remain-voting constituency of Chesham and Amersham five weeks ago they were able to present themselves as the challenger which made it that much easier to squeeze the non-Tory vote. The LAB vote dropped from 12.8% at the general election to just 1.6% in the by-election suggesting that the old negative about the LDs in the 2010-2015 coalition is less of a factor than it was.

As PB regular swill know I was suggesting that the LDs were the value bet in the by-election there right from the start and many were able to gt on at 20. This was based on the GE2019 outcome and the demographics – a high proportion of ABC1s and 40+% of voters there being graduates.

Of course by-elections are not general elections and party resources are spread much more thinly. But we do know that amongst many LD target voters that BoJo is electorally toxic. The latest Opinium poll had Johnson’s approval ratings amongst ABC1 Remainers at a net MINUS 44%. If he is still PM that will help Davey’s party.

If you probe the details of many of the target seats above there is a similar profile.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.