Going beyond four years adds to the risk

I have just bet at 3.6 on Betfair that 2023 will be the year of the next general election. The Fixed-term Parliament Act is being replaced by a new measure that puts the control of the next election date into the hands of the prime minister

My guess is that BoJo/Sunak or whoever the PM will be in a couple of years’ time won’t want to risk hanging on until the latest possible time to decide to go to the country.

Mrs. Thatcher never took those risks when she went to the country after four years at GE1983 and GE1987. Tony Blair did the same after coming to power at GE1997 calling elections in 2001 and 2005.

Looking back there’s a tendency for parliaments that run their full course to end up with a change of government as we saw at GE1997 and GE2010.

For the Tories to go in 2023 would allow them to keep their options open and call the election when it is best politically for the party.

I reckon that October 2023 will be when the next election takes place with it being called so that Labour cannot benefit from the media attention of their conference the previous month.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.