BoJo’s position not helped by the “watering down” of July 19 – so called “Freedom Day”

Next Monday is going to be another COVID milestone that has become increasingly less significant the closer we get. What was promised by the PM as “freedom day” is going to end up as a massive gamble if the controls are lifted and made voluntary. The polling on this doesn’t look good and if if the infection numbers soar as predicted the PM will struggle to avoid the blame.

All this could be good news for Starmer who has seen a slump over recent months that have conicided with the PM’s “vaccine bounce”.

One betting market worth looking at is on “Next PM” where Starmer is currently an 18% shot on the exchanges.

A big feature of this bet whether or not Boris Johnson will go before the general election. Clearly if he steps down beforehand whether as a result of a party revolt or him deciding he wants an easier life then Sunak continues to look like a good bet. But if he’s still there to fight the next general election then other considerations apply.

At the moment LDs look like being very competitive in a quite a few Tory Remain seats in the South East and elsewhere mostly in areas where Johnson has big negative ratings. The size of the LD victory in Chesham and Amersham should have been a warning to the blue team.

The SNP remain strong north of the border and could easily take all but one of the Tory seats. On top of these factors almost all the polls show a CON to LAB swing since GE. This all points to the Tories making net losses next time.

I don’t think there is any chance whatsoever of Labour being able to secure a majority of MPs or getting anywhere near. But if BoJo’s Tories suffer net losses of 47 seats or more then it is going to be extremely hard for the blue team to remain at Number 10.

In that situation then Starmer could be in a position to enter Number 10 even if the Tories still have more seats. For as as has been argued before BoJo’s party is uncoalitionsable. It will struggle to find any partners to remain in power.

As I always state bets are about value and are not predictions and at 18% in this market Starmer looks like a moderately good bet.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.