Punters could have been bruised by the by-election flops

It is some time since we looked at the next general election betting based on Betfair and as can be seen BoJo’s team is no longer rated as a better than evens chance to win a majority.

Looking at the way the market moved in May it looks as though the Tory gain from LAB in the Hartlepool by-elections was the big driver in taking the betting to a 53.3% chance. At that stage the Tories moved to a 95% chance of retaining Chesham and Amersham in mid-June where they lost the seat on a CON-LD swing of 15%.

That did not impact on the betting for Batley & Spen where until the final days Tory chances were rated by punters at greater than 75% chance to take the seat from Labour.

The Tory poll lead has also edged downwards although the most recent Survation has the blues with an 11% lead. It was Survation’s Batley & Spen poll that had BoJo’s party with a six point lead.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.