If he is able to run then he could get it

We’ve hardly referred to events in the US following the January 6th Insurrection and the inauguration of Joe Biden. From the perspective of this side of the pond things seem a lot more peaceful and without the regular stream of Tweets from the Oval Office life is getting back to some sort of normality.

Biden has a very different style although he has been struggling to get big measures through which is not helped by his party holding the Senate on the casting vote of Kamala Harris and a very small majority in the House.

Although his predecessor has been deprived of his Twitter and Facebook accounts Trump is still highly active within the Republican party and just about anybody wanting to win a party nomination of any sort has to make sure that Trump is going to be on their side.

This looks set to be very important in the next few months because In November next year we have the Midterms when the whole of the House of Representatives will be up for grabs and at the moment at least getting Trump’s backing will be key in most of the nomination processes.

For that it requires total support for Trump’s big lie about WH2024 being stolen from him. At the same time his continued rhetoric about the “stolen” election is causing many GOP-controlled state legislatures to bring in measures that are designed to suppress particularly nonwhite votes.

Whether these survive a coming hearing in the Supreme Court could shape future US politics.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.