Yesterday in an interview Starmer was asked whether he could name his party’s candidate in next week’s Chesham and Amersham by-election. He couldn’t and another indication of how badly things are going for him.

This morning Ipsos has published a series of charts on the various leader ratings that it runs and the above chart compares how he and Corbyn rated for satisfaction after 14 months in office. Starmer has slumped to a new low of minus 29% which compares exactly with Corbyn at this stage. The firm’s leader satisfaction ratings is the longest series of such polls in the UK having being asked since the late 1970s.

What makes all this so disappointing for LAB supporters is that things looked so good for him a year ago. He opened his leadership with the best satisfaction ratings for a Leader of the Opposition since Blair.

This other chart has more grim news for the former DPP:

Interesting how the mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, rates so highly though Starmer can take some comfort in that he is miles ahead of Michael Gove. The poll also finds 50% saying that Labour should change its leader before the next election. 26% disagree.

In the betting Smarkets make it a 50% chance that Starmer will be out before the end of 2023. That looks like a good bet.

Mike Smithson

UPDATE: These are the markeThis market relates to whether the UK government re-introduces any legally enforceable restrictions on social contact in England related to the spread of coronavirus, following the legal end of restrictions on social contact (currently expected to take place on 19 July 2021). Examples may include, but are not limited to, the mandatory wearing of face masks on public transport or the closure of pubs/nightclubs. For the purposes of this market, restrictions will not include any regulations on international travel or any regulations related to self-isolation or quarantine. For the purposes of this market, ‘re-introduce’ does not require any restrictions to exactly replicate previous restrictions. If the UK government does not end restrictions on social contact in 2021, and thus could not ‘re-introduce’ restrictions, this market will be void. Dates in this market relate to when any restrictions come into force in England, rather than the date on which they are announced. All times and dates in this market are in UK time. Clarification (14 July 2021): This market refers to mandatory England-wide measures introduced by the UK government. Any measures that are introduced locally or by individual companies (e.g. Transport for London only) will not count towards the settlement of this market. Clarification (6 September 2021): If ‘vaccination passports’ are required for entry to nightclubs or other events, this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable. Clarification (12 October 2021): If vaccines become mandatory for people working in care homes at any point in 2021 (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-of-people-working-or-deployed-in-care-homes-operational-guidance) this market will be settled for yes, so long as the measure satisfies the other conditions in the market rules, i.e. that it is mandatory, implemented by the UK government, England-wide and legally enforceable.